Another equation, but with logic many have already hinted at. My point here is mostly the idea of regime change---more and more, with the latest comments from Russian generals and Foreign Affairs Department head Sergei Lavrov, it seems Georgia's long-held paranoia has been confirmed: Russia does in fact seem to want Sakaashvili's head, and probably has all along, likely in just as crude a way as Saddam's was shock-deprived of oxygen.
What I sorta wonder is whether or not they actually think the guy's insane, and how much, if they do, that factors into their decisions to overthrow his admittedly slipshod government. And that in turn makes for a bigger, even juicier question: how much of what the Russian bureaucrats are spewing out right now do they actually believe themselves? And what, in each of these instances, are they after? Is Putin so hot-headed that he simply kept rolling with the punches (WTO---out, NATO partnership---out, all negotiating leverage besides that gained by oil and gas---out) after having dealt himself a severe wound by shooting himself in the foot with the escalation in Georgia? And how much is Medvedev turning into his double out of genuine respect for his unabashed railing against anyone who disses them and how much is he being put up to it all by the master puppeteer?
A hilarious example of language so exaggerated it's far beyond absurd, like calling Yeltsin a bit of a drinker:
(from a statement by Foreign Affairs minister Sergei Lavrov yesterday): The president and parliament [etc. etc.] today passed a resolution acknowledging the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and regarding the signing of agreements expressing friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance.
Mutual assistance. As in, you let us piss off the Georgians from your territory every once in a while, and we'll try not to let any South Ossetian elementary schools fall into the wrong hands like we did with your Northern brethren, you can tout our military as having your back, and the money will come in steady flows. That is, as long as we still hate Georgia and it's in our interests to have you as our lap dogs.
1 comment:
I don't believe anybody really thinks that Sakaashvili is insane - he's been far too adept a political animal up until now to warrant that label. I think Putin just doesn't like him, but also, I think you're leaving out a big factor that's influencing Putin's hot-headedness: economics.
Georgia doesn't have much in the way of natural resources, especially not in the disputed regions, but the country is geographically significant. Of the 4 major pipelines that start in Azerbaijan, 3 go through Georgia and only 1 through Russia. There are 2 more natural gas pipelines proposed in the area, one that would go through Georgia, one through Russia. The Georgia plan has stalled (go figure) while the Russian one (known as South Stream, I believe) steams ahead. Turkey remains politically unstable, so with Georgia becoming friendlier with NATO and the EU, it was looking like a reasonable conduit through which to get oil and gas to the Black Sea.
Much of Russia's recent strength on the global scene is directly attributable to its control of oil and natural gas - the revenues from sky-high commodity prices have enabled Putin and his government (cronies?) to push their own agenda while maintaining the support of the populace and act unilaterally in international affairs. The counter-invasion of Georgia enabled them to disrupt a competing supply, and removing the belligerent head of that state would disrupt it further, consolidate Russia's power in the region, and send a message to other states (Ukraine, Kazakhstan) that Russia will brook no challenges to its dominance in the energy markets.
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