Obama + Putin = ?

I just thought of something after reading this solid, well-informed, moderately insightful piece by David Remnick, editor of the New Yorker and former Moscow correspondent for the Washington Post (during the fall of the Soviet Union). In the last sentence, his genuinely thought-provoking conclusion hints at the shortcomings in the diplomatic techniques used by the West in dealing with Putin (and, to a lesser extent, both due to his weakened presence and his seemingly more flexible and reasonable approach toward governance, Medvedev), whose all-encompassing power is extremely dynamic, stretching across boundaries not dared to be traversed by his immediate predecessor at least. He's conniving, aggressive, and has a whole ton of firepower behind him, from military and social (a vast majority of Russians support him) to monetary and natural-resource---which makes him a spiny target for Western handling. That is, Europe can't piss him off too bad because they're so dependent on him for gas supplies, and the U.S. doesn't seem to want to face off with him for, well, lots of reasons, such as the fact that their military is already overstretched in Iraq and Afghanistan, they see the idiocy in the Georgian move to attack South Ossetia and therefore for all their support of the maniac Saakashvili they don't wanna take too strong a position against Russia, etc. etc.

Those were all tangents. What I really thought of immediately after finishing Remnick's rumination was how Obama, the possible successor to a largely ineffectual negotiator in Bush, might handle Putin; whether he would be the one negotiating with him at all or whether he might leave it mostly to his secretary of state, much as Bush has done with Rice; or whether he might not dispatch VP Biden, a veteran in foreign affairs, to deal with the temperamental de facto leader of the country.

More than anything else, I just thought about how Putin might react to having to negotiate with Obama. I can't recall reading anything about Putin's opinion of the U.S. presidential candidates or about race---but given his deep-seated Russianness, a characteristic stereotypically (and definitively present in large numbers of Russians) tied to prejudice against anyone who is anything but ethnic Russian or, in some cases, a member of another white people, I can just imagine him trying to hide his discomfort in meeting with Obama. I so want to see that.

Whether or not Obama would himself be any more effective a negotiator or diplomat with Putin, regardless (not that you can simply disregard the influence of Putin's likely unease with the man) of possible personal issues, is a completely different story of course. From what I've seen of Obama, especially lately, I can't say that I have a lot of confidence in his ability to take a hard line---not that that's necessarily the path I think needs to be taken with Putin all the time. But the Russian prime minister is so saavy and has so much experience in having his way with weak-stomached foreign leaders, that I would worry about Obama's ability to stand his ground with him.

There's even a fitting historical analogy that may predict the result of this potential unfair fight. I remember reading about how JFK met with Khrushchev when he first became president and got his ass handed to him by the Soviet head of state. He got completely out-played diplomatically, bullied around by Stalin's experienced successor. There have been worthy comparisons made between JFK and Obama---both young, highly intelligent, charismatic politicians who quickly rose through the political ranks---but I wonder if the latter too might run straight into a brick wall in attempting to negotiate with Russia's newest shrewd, powerful, autocratic leader.